Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – El Nino is a serious threat in Indonesia until next year. It could even potentially turn into Gorilla El Nino.
El Nino is said to be the cause of the phenomenon of rising temperatures in Indonesia. This was revealed from studies and discussions by researchers in the Variability, Climate Change and Early Season Team of the National Research and Innovation Agency (TIVIPIAM-BRIN).
In fact, this time the incident is predicted to get stronger and resemble what happened in 2015. It could also be much more extreme.
If this phenomenon occurs, Indonesia will be hit by increased drought and extreme hot weather. This was also revealed through modeling from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), which stated that the Earth’s temperature had increased by 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Meanwhile, the peak of El Nino is expected to occur from November 2023 to February 2024. The reason, according to the Head of the TIVIPIAM BRIN Team, Erma Yulihastin, is that El Nino and La Nina have a life cycle of 9 months.
So because El Nino started in June 2023, the peak will occur around November 2023 to February 2024.
“The results of the latest studies and discussions that we have carried out, if we look at the life cycle of El Nino, from modeling the calculation of the strength index of El Nino itself, is currently heading towards area 3, the Pacific Ocean further to the west of Peru,” he said to CNBC Indonesiasome time ago.
“After reaching the peak level of 3.5, the level in Nino area 2 touched 2.32. This means there is a decline. If it reaches 3.5 it is no longer super El Nino, but gorilla El Nino,” he added.
He explained that during the decline there would be a transfer of heat energy to the Pacific Ocean region which was moving further to the West. Where there will be an increase in levels in the region to level 2.
Gorilla El Nino heads for Indonesia
Meanwhile, Erma also explained what happened during El Nino in 2015. At that time, the situation should have been in a declining phase but it turned out that the El Nino phenomenon was still alive and extended for more than a year.
Therefore, the phenomenon that is occurring is not an ordinary El Nino. Michael McPhaden, NOAA’s El Nino expert, calls it the Gorilla El Nino, because it occurs over a long period of time and has high intensity.
“At that time, none of the models had successfully predicted that El Nino would be that strong and last that long,” he said.
Erma said researchers were still waiting to see whether Indonesia would experience the same situation. However, he explained that if El Nino rises in one life cycle, there is no chance of it decreasing.
Modeling from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows the potential for stronger El Nino intensity. Erma said anything could happen because the modeling accommodates an increase in Earth’s temperature of up to 1.5 degrees.
BOM models that El Nino is moving and strengthening to areas 3 and 4. This means it is heading further west towards Papua.
“If other modeling shows normal conditions, this means that El Nino will decline in February (2024). But not with BOM, with the global warming factor, this El Nino is expected to continue to strengthen, could last a long time, which we call multiyear El Nino. “Similar to 2015,” concluded Erma.
[Gambas:Video CNBC]
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