Foreign Predictions About Indonesia’s Fate in the Political Year News – 7 hours ago

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Morgan Stanley estimates that global economic growth will continue to decline from 2023 to 2025. Meanwhile, for Indonesia, they estimate that economic growth will continue to increase in the next three years.

In a document entitled 2024 Global Economics Outlook: The Last Mile, this financial services company which focuses on investment banking estimates that the global economy in 2023 will only grow 3%. Then it will be 2.8% in 2024 and increase slightly in 2025 to 2.9%.

“This estimate is based on a scenario of a global economic decline due to a protracted debt deflation cycle in China, which then has an impact on other countries,” was quoted from the document, Friday (17/11/2023).

Morgan Stanley also estimates that the weakening of the global economy will be accompanied by differences in the direction of growth rates between countries. For advanced economic countries, they predict that the majority of their economies will weaken, while developing economic countries will vary.

The United States, based on Morgan Stanley projections, its economy will only grow 2.4% in 2023, 1.9% in 2024, and 1.4% in 2025. Japan from 2% in 2023, heading to 1% in 2024, and becoming 1.1% in 2025. The Eurozone will even only grow 0.4% in 2023, contract 0.1% in 2024, and grow 1% in 2025.

“The eurozone reflects the continued impact of energy supply shocks, especially in Germany, and the lagging impact of tight monetary policy,” according to Morgan Stanley.

Meanwhile, developing economic countries or emerging markets, such as China, are expected to experience declining growth in 2023-2025, namely 5.1%, 4.2% and 4%. India is also the same, from 6.6%, slowing to 6.4%, only to rise again to 6.5% in 2025.

“China’s growth is restrained in the post-reopening phase, amid the housing sector and a decline in LGFV (Local Government Financing Vehicle) debt. The risk of a debt deflation cycle remains,” Morgan Stanley said.

Meanwhile, specifically for Indonesia, they estimate that the economy will grow consistently in the range of 5% until 2025. In 2023, Morgan Stanley estimates Indonesia’s economic growth at 5%, then 5.1% in 2024, and to 5.2% in 2025.

“In Indonesia, growth momentum will remain strong, with the driving factors shifting to the recovery stage which tends to be supported by capital expenditure and consumption, rather than commodity exports,” as written in Morgan Stanley’s 2024 Global Economics Outlook: The Last Mile.

[Gambas:Video CNBC]

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