Surabaya, CNBC Indonesia – Accurate Research and Consulting Indonesia (ARCI) released the results of the latest survey in East Java regarding the electability of presidential candidates who have registered with the KPU. As a result, Prabowo-Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka were in the top position.
According to the ARCI survey, Prabowo-Gibran’s eligibility is 40.1%. Then followed by Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD 35.9%. And the pair Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar at 22.2%.
ARCI Director Baihaki Sirajt explained why Prabowo-Gibran excelled in East Java. One of them is the migration of PDIP supporters who initially chose Ganjar Pranowo, now switching to Prabowo.
“PDIP voters, especially in the Mataraman base who initially chose Ganjar as their presidential candidate, are now switching to Prabowo because of the Gibran factor,” said Baihaki during a presentation in Surabaya, Wednesday (1/11/2023).
Baihaki said that 33.7% of PDIP voters chose Prabowo-Gibran. Meanwhile 66.3% chose Ganjar-Mahfud. There are no PDIP voters who voted for Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar.
“The Gibran and Jokowi factors influenced PDIP voters in East Java to switch from Ganjar to Prabowo. So they still voted for PDIP, but the presidential candidate was Prabowo,” he explained.
Baihaki said that Gibran’s joining gave Prabowo an abundance of votes from Jokowi loyalists in East Java. Moreover, East Java was Jokowi’s base during the two presidential elections in 2014 and 2019.
“One of the factors is that Jokowi loyalists, who used to be close to Ganjar, are now starting to turn to Prabowo,” he explained.
“We carried out this survey when the presidential candidate registered with the KPU, and when Gibran was announced as vice presidential candidate by Prabowo,” he said.
The ARCI survey was conducted on 22-27 October 2023. The survey used a multistage random sampling method with a sample size of 1,200 respondents distributed proportionally across 38 districts/cities of East Java. The ARCI survey has a margin of error of 2.8% and a confidence level of 95%.
The following are the complete results of the electability of presidential and vice presidential candidates in East Java according to ARCI:
1. Prabowo-Gibran 40.1%
2. Ganjar-Mahfud 35.9%
3. Anies-Muhaimin 22.2%
Don’t know/didn’t answer: 1.8%
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