Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – El Nino is said to be one of the causes of the anomalous phenomenon of rising temperatures in the country.
Now, the threat of El Nino is moving from eastern Indonesia and has the potential to have a bigger impact, it could even turn into a Gorilla El Nino.
This was known through the results of studies and discussions by researchers in the Variability, Climate Change and Early Season Team of the National Research and Innovation Agency (TIVIPIAM-BRIN).
Researchers predict that El Nino will become stronger, similar to a similar event in 2015, or more extreme.
If this happens, the drought and extreme hot weather currently hitting Indonesia is likely to increase.
The signal was confirmed by modeling carried out by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The modeling takes into account the earth’s temperature, which is currently experiencing an increase in temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
TIVIPIAM BRIN Team Leader Erma Yulihastin said the typical life cycle of El Nino or La Nina is 9 months. This means that if El Nino in Indonesia is said to officially start in June 2023, then as predicted, the peak of El Nino in Indonesia will actually occur in the range of November 2023-February 2024.
“The results of the latest studies and discussions that we have carried out, if we look at the life cycle of El Nino, from modeling the calculation of the strength index of El Nino itself, it is currently heading towards area 3, the Pacific Ocean to the west of Peru,” he told CNBC Indonesia, quoted Monday (30/10/2023).
“After reaching the peak level of 3.5, the level in Nino area 2 touched 2.32. This means there is a decline. If it reaches 3.5 it is no longer super El Nino, but gorilla El Nino,” he added.
When this decline occurred, he explained, there was simultaneously a transfer of heat energy to the Pacific Ocean region further west. Which indicates that there will be an increase in levels in the region towards level 2.
In terms of index, it will continue to rise, at the same time there is a transfer of energy from the eastern region of the Pacific Ocean near Peru to the west. When it reaches 2, at that time, the dryness will become more pronounced.
“This is what I want to remind you of, the life cycle of El Nino. All models agree, because now (El Nino) is still on its way from east to west,” said Erma, who is also a Climatology Researcher at the Center for Climate and Atmosphere at the National Research and Innovation Agency, BRIN.
Does Indonesia have the potential to experience a Gorilla El Nino?
Erma explained, to measure the index and strength of El Nino intensity, the modeling was divided into areas 1 and 2 which are in the eastern region of the Pacific Ocean towards Peru, and areas 3 and 4 which are further west of the Pacific Ocean. Area 4 is closer to Papua.
Then there is area 3.4 which is believed to have more influence on climate conditions in Indonesia. If El Nino, which is heading west or areas 3 and 4, when it arrives in area 3.4, lasts a long time with strong intensity, Indonesia will experience conditions similar to those caused by El Nino in 2015.
“El Nino in 2015, when it should have been in a declining phase, actually persisted. So its life cycle at that time was no longer 9 months, but more than 1 year, even almost 2 years. At that time, NOAA’s El Nino Expert, Michael McPhaden, “We called El Nino in 2015 the Gorilla El Nino. Because it lasted a long time with high intensity,” explained Erma.
“At that time, none of the models had successfully predicted that El Nino would be that strong and last that long,” he said.
Earth’s Temperature Rises
Regarding the potential for Indonesia to experience similar conditions, Erma said that currently researchers are still waiting. What is clear, according to him, is that in the El Nino theory, if it is still in the rising phase of its life cycle, there is no chance that El Nino will decline.
“Are we going to have the potential for a Gorilla El Nino? We don’t know, all scientists are still waiting and seeing, hopefully anxious. Because this is the first time in history, El Nino was formed when the earth’s temperature was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is what “it is likely to contribute to maintaining El Nino. Because there is supply over heat,” explained Erma.
“Well, the modeling carried out by BOM, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, shows that the intensity of El Nino has the potential to get stronger. This is different from that carried out by the United States and Japan. This modeling by BOM accommodates the increase in earth temperature due to global warming, which has now reached 1.5 degrees Celsius. So, anything can happen,” he said.
From the results of the BOM modeling, he said, EL Nino will get stronger as it moves towards areas 3 and 4, meaning it moves further west towards Papua.
“If other modeling shows normal conditions, this means that El Nino will decline in February (2024). But not with BOM, with the global warming factor, this El Nino is expected to continue to strengthen, could last a long time, which we call multiyear El Nino. “Similar to 2015,” concluded Erma.
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