Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Climatology Researcher at the Center for Climate and Atmosphere at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) Erma Yulihastin explained the signs that indicate Indonesia could be threatened by the El Nino gorilla. This, he said, can be seen from the results of the latest studies and analyzes carried out by researchers in the BRIN Variability, Climate Change and Early Season Team (TIVIPIAM-BRIN).
“Now El Nino is almost strong, already at 2 (its index),” he said in the Indonesian Ocean-Atmosphere Extreme Event Research Collaboration webinar, Friday (27/10/2023).
That’s why, explained Erma, it is necessary to analyze the intensity and duration of El Nino.
He also related the experience of El Nino which hit Indonesia in 2015. At that time, he said, various predictions about El Nino in 2015 were wrong, both in terms of duration and intensity.
“We can’t just look at the El Nino cycle, but also the intensity, duration, severity,” he said.
“In 2014, all the prediction models thought that towards the end of the rainy season there would be an El Nino. Oh, I didn’t know it wouldn’t be an El Nino. Only in 2015 it was about to enter transition. And people didn’t expect, ‘ah the weakest’. It turned out to reach 2. “People also think, ‘ah, at most 9 months will last’. It turns out that’s not true. The total duration of El Nino at that time was 18 months,” added Erma.
Then, he said, at that time NOAA El Nino Expert Michael McPhaden gave a lecture at ITB. McPhaden, he said, said the 2015 El Niño could not be solved by any modeling.
“We can say that McPhaden is the grandfather of El Nino, from NOAA. He was the first to create an El Nino prediction model. He said at that time, ‘this Gorilla El Nino cannot be solved by any of our models’. At that time “People are very interested about El Nino 2015. Everyone is confused. Why can it last that long in a strong El Nino?” Erma said.
“This is what underlies me, maybe in 2023, we are anxious, hopefully we won’t be rich in 2015. All scientists are concerned about that,” he said.
 Photo: BRIN webinar presentation, monitoring El Nino 2023. (BRIN Webinar Screenshot)BRIN webinar presentation, monitoring El Nino 2023. (BRIN Webinar Screenshot) |
El Nino 2023 update
Erma also explained the latest El Nino study currently underway.
It is stated that the current El Nino appeared 1 year earlier, due to the impact of climate change. Supposedly, he said, without the effects of climate change, El Nino would only occur in 2024.
He explained that the results of modeling carried out by the TIVIPIAM-BRIN team, which he chairs, showed that the current El Nino journey started in the eastern Pacific Ocean in the Peruvian region.
“Where is the hottest temperature now? Not yet in Indonesia. The tongue is still in the East. What does that mean? It’s still a long way to go. One model in Australia, this November has only reached 2, with the average a month, yes. If it’s daily, now it’s already 2. “After 2? It could reach 2.8. The model made in Japan is also the same, predicting it will be above 2,” he explained.
“If we look, even though it will go down, it is still perched at 1.6. Even though that is already April 2024. And each region (El Nino’s journey) is 2 months,” explained Erma.
He also asked all parties to be careful in 2024.
“In our area, if it’s the hottest in us, it will look dry. Not yet, not yet because El Nino is real. It’s still IOD Positive. Only next year, in March, April, May (2024),” said Erma.
“Right now there is still rain, tropical cyclones. There are still lots of clouds around Papua. This means that El Nino has not yet had an impact on Indonesia. That’s the size of it. El Nino has not yet gripped our region,” he said.
“This is what I’m worried about. Prepare yourself, in the agricultural sector, especially to face difficult times in 2024 after the rainy season ends. There will still be rain, it will definitely rain. But our concern is after the rain, March. It’s still 2.3. “April is still perched at 2, and most likely will still survive, not immediately decay,” concluded Erma.
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