Not El Nino, BRIN Researcher Explains Cause of Boiling Heat News – 1 hour ago

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Indonesia is experiencing boiling hot weather and extreme drought, with the highest maximum temperature approaching 40 degrees Celsius. Semarang and Kertajati are reported to be the 2 regions in Indonesia that have recorded the highest maximum temperatures in recent times.

What’s the trigger?

According to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), this condition is said to be the effect of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon which causes an anomalous increase in temperature and a decrease in the formation of rain clouds south of the equator.

Also, it was triggered by the El Nino sea surface temperature increase anomaly that occurred in the Pacific Ocean in the eastern equator. Plus the influence of winds from Australia, which is drier, has caused this dry season to be more intense than the usual dry season.

However, the results of studies and discussions by researchers in the Variability, Climate Change and Early Season Team of the National Research and Innovation Agency (TIVIPIAM-BRIN) found other facts.

TIVIPIAM BRIN Team Leader Erma Yulihastin explained, from the latest studies, the current hot weather in Indonesia has not been fully influenced by El Nino. He also said that this shows that Indonesia will still experience strengthening El Nino. Or, it has not yet entered the decline phase in the life cycle of El Nino.

“There are several important points to note from the results of our discussion and study by the Variability, Climate Change and Early Season Team of the National Research and Innovation Agency. First, in the context of the current drought, the impact of the drought is actually more influenced by positive IOD, not by “El Nino. So the drought is now mostly controlled by positive IOD,” he told CNBC Indonesia, quoted Wednesday (25/10/2023).

He explained that the behavior of El Nino and La Nina or El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a life cycle. Where, the journey or propagation of the wave starts from the easternmost part, namely the Pacific Ocean near Peru, then slowly spreads towards the west, namely in the western tip of the Pacific Ocean, which is located near Papua.

Erma explained, to measure the index and strength of El Nino intensity, the modeling was divided into areas 1 and 2 which are in the eastern region of the Pacific Ocean towards Peru, and areas 3 and 4 which are further west of the Pacific Ocean. Area 4 is closer to Papua.

Then there is area 3.4 which is believed to have more influence on climate conditions in Indonesia.

Meanwhile, he continued, the typical life cycle for El Nino and La Nina is 9 months. This means that if El Nino in Indonesia is said to have officially started in June 2023, this means that the peak of El Nino in Indonesia will actually occur in the range of November 2023-February 2024.

“Why is it like that? Because the tongue is spreading slowly. So, now the highest temperature anomaly is still occurring in area 2,” said Erma, who is also a Climatology Researcher at the Center for Climate and Atmosphere at the National Research and Innovation Agency, BRIN.

“After reaching the peak level of 3.5, the level in Nino area 2 touched 2.32. This means there is a decline. If it reaches 3.5 it is no longer super El Nino, but gorilla El Nino,” he added.

This downward trend, he explained, confirmed that the El Nino tongue from area 2 was spreading towards area 3. However, continued Erma, as it spread, the El Nino tongue was also diverting its heat energy to areas to the west, to the Nino 3 region.

Because of that, he continued, the index at nino 3 is now starting to creep up towards level 2.

Erma’s monitoring on Monday (23/10/2023), the index at nino 3 had even reached plus 1.92 and at nino 3.4 it had reached plus 1.59.

“When the index reaches 2 in nino 4 or 3.4 which is closest to Indonesia, only then will the drought become even more pronounced. This is what I want to remind you, where all modeling agrees to show that El Nino is still on its way from the east,” said Erma.

“Is there a possibility that it will suddenly fall? According to the El Nino theory, it is not possible because this involves changing conditions in the sea that occur slowly. There is the influence of the Walkere circulation wind which moves to transfer heat energy from the east, slowly towards the west,” he explained.

That’s why, he added, the latest TIVIPIAM-BRIN study agrees on the fact that the current drought is still dominated by the effects of positive IOD, not yet El Nino.

“Because if we look, in Papua we are still observing the formation of cyclones. This means that conditions are still fine, there are no anomalies that could trigger drought in Papua,” he said.

“This means that El Nino is still moving to area 3, where it will take around 2 months from area 2. If so, it will only reach area 3 around November-December 2023, coinciding with the rainy season period,” he added.

“Then it will move to 4 in January-February 2024, and enter the 3.4 area possibly in December 2023-January 2024. So just after 1 El Nino life cycle lasts 9 months. Then the intensity of El Nino will start to decline,” he said.

It’s just that, Erma reminded, El Nino which occurred this year coincided with an increase in earth temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius. So, he is worried that the intensity of El Nino in area 3.4 will remain high and long, not fluctuate like El Nino in 2015.

“El Nino in 2015, when it should have been in a declining phase, actually persisted. So its life cycle at that time was no longer 9 months, but more than 1 year, even almost 2 years. At that time, NOAA’s El Nino Expert, Michael McPhaden, “We called El Nino in 2015 the Gorilla El Nino. Because it lasted a long time with high intensity,” explained Erma.

“At that time, none of the models had successfully predicted that El Nino would be that strong and last that long,” he said.

So does Indonesia have the potential to experience a Gorilla El Nino?

Erma said that currently the researchers are still waiting.

“Are we going to have the potential for a Gorilla El Nino? We don’t know, all scientists are still waiting and seeing, hopefully anxious. Because this is the first time in history, El Nino was formed when the earth’s temperature was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is what “It is likely to contribute to maintaining El Nino. Because there is an overheating supply,” explained Erma.

“Modeling carried out by the BOM (Bureau of Meteorology) – Australian Bureau of Meteorology, shows that the intensity of El Nino has the potential to get stronger. This modeling by BOM accommodates the increase in earth temperature due to global warming, which has now reached 1.5 degrees Celsius. So, anything can happened,” he said.

From the results of the BOM modeling, he said, EL Nino will get stronger as it moves towards areas 3 and 4, meaning it moves further west towards Papua.

“If other modeling shows normal conditions, this means that El Nino will decline in February (2024). But not with BOM, with the global warming factor, this El Nino is predicted to continue to strengthen, could last a long time, which we call multiyear El Nino. “Similar to 2015,” concluded Erma.

[Gambas:Video CNBC]

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