Analysis of Prabowo choosing Gibran as vice presidential candidate, there are strong factors News – 2 hours ago

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Political analysts reveal the reasons for the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) appointing the Mayor of Solo, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as the vice presidential candidate (cawapres) accompanying the presidential candidate (capres), Prabowo Subianto.

Political analyst from Bakrie University, Muhammad Tri Andika, said that based on his analysis, KIM normatively appointed Gibran as vice presidential candidate with a number of electoral, territorial and political regeneration considerations of young people.

“I see that Gibran’s choice is more related to Prabowo’s basic needs in the 2024 presidential election, namely feelings insecure “Prabowo based on his experience in the 2014 and 2019 elections,” said Andika in his analysis, quoted on Sunday (29/10/2023).


Based on Indonesian political history, Andika explained that Prabowo has a record as a political figure with a long career and has and will run as cawapres and presidential candidate four times, namely in 2009, 2014, 2019 and 2024.

Despite the trend of increasing electability from election to election, Prabowo’s “destiny” as president has not yet arrived. According to him, there were a number of factors behind Prabowo’s defeat in the 2014 and 2019 elections, starting from campaign strategy, narrative war, to the figure of the vice presidential candidate.

“However, from the existing factors, I observe that the factor that is most often raised in every election is the factor of “fraud” in holding the election. This is what I see as the source political insecurity a Prabowo,” said Andika.

“So it is not surprising that in the 2014 and 2019 elections, the presidential election results were always accompanied by a lawsuit to the Constitutional Court (MK),” he continued.

Andika believes that the two elections which were often accompanied by lawsuits to the Constitutional Court indicate that Prabowo has a serious record regarding the implementation of elections, especially the presidential election, which is suspected to be full of fraudulent practices.

“This is what I see as an important factor in Prabowo’s subconscious. From this premise, it is not surprising that the security and comfort of the election process is a key factor in Prabowo’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. And this can only be obtained by Prabowo, if President Jokowi does not support him. split to anyone but himself,” explained Andika.

According to Andika, even though it is risky for Prabowo, making Gibran his vice presidential candidate is the most realistic and tactical option in the hope of overcoming the trauma of fraud and manipulation in every election he has ever participated in.

Moreover, Andika said that Prabowo’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election could be said to be greater than in 2014 and 2019. Based on the results of surveys by many institutions, including a survey conducted by Poligov since March 2023, in a simulation head to head Prabowo and Ganjar, Prabowo’s electability is consistently above Ganjar’s by a distance of 3-9 percent.

With the survey results, Prabowo certainly sees this as strong capital to win. However, this advantage could certainly change if Prabowo cannot ensure political security and comfort in holding elections.

“So apart from the conflict of interest reasons, the Constitutional Court’s decision is full of nepotism and dynastic political issues for Prabowo, making Gibran, who is actually President Jokowi’s son, as vice president, is the best way to get political guarantees to avoid the potential for fraud and abuse of state officials which has been common up to now. haunting him,” said Andika.

“That’s why, apart from tactical electoral considerations, Gibran is also an answer to feelings insecure Prabowo,” he continued.

However, Andika said that Gibran’s candidacy as vice presidential candidate does not mean there are no serious problems. With his status as the President’s son, the potential for misuse of state instruments will always exist.

“We hope that doesn’t happen. The public will be very wary of President Jokowi so that he can place himself in a neutral position and be able to resist various temptations to abuse the power he has for the interests of his son,” said Andika.

[Gambas:Video CNBC]

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