How bad will Chelsea’s next few games be?

Having Chelsea players has recently been a mixed experience in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

The final of four games deemed ‘easy’ were home draws against Leeds United and Burnley. No clean sheets for defenders, one Enzo Fernandez (£6.8 million), but failed several times Joao Pedro (£7.7 million) and Cole Palmer (£10.6 million).

Therefore, the upcoming fixture changes make it the perfect time to move on from Liam Rosenior’s side, who are featured in the top sell list in Gameweek 28 (as of Wednesday afternoon).

But, to play devil’s advocate, perhaps these names should be kept around for a little longer.

EQUIPMENT TICKERS

Whether it’s just Matchday 28, from now until the end, or any time period in between, our Fixtures Schedule always puts Chelsea last in terms of difficulty.

Especially on the next six occasions, facing the top four, Champions League side Newcastle United, and a trip to Everton which has brought defeat five of the last seven times.

In the reverse fixture this season, Chelsea beat Everton, lost to Aston Villa and Manchester City, and drew the other three matches.

CHELSEA BUYERS

Studying this six-a-side attack, Arsenal, Man City and Manchester United are in the top four this season in terms of goals and attempts. They are also the next best, after Chelsea, in terms of expected goals (xG).

They are in the top three for shots on target (above), with Newcastle in sixth, Villa in seventh and Everton in 18th.

The Toffees are also fourth in terms of goals, adding potential to the Blank Gameweek 31 clash. So maybe Trevoh Chalobah (£5.7 million) and Robert Sanchez (£4.9m) can be maintained for the time being.

After all, Chelsea’s defensive standards have dropped recently. Despite being generally among the best of the season, their last six games have produced the most big chances (15, under) and shots on target (26).

This is a fair short-term example, where Villa struggled to score goals due to the absence of several key midfielders. They accumulated the fewest big chances (seven), but were alongside Man United, Arsenal and Man City in the top seven for shots on target.

All but Everton reached the top eight for shots (above). But half a dozen of them are between fifth and 14th for the latest xG.

CHELSEA ATTACKER

Meanwhile, these six back lines are worth studying. Known for their typically ruthless defending, Arsenal have slipped in three successive appearances, meaning Aston Villa have conceded a league-low four times in six matches.

And Man United were better at limiting big chances (six). A category where Villa, Man City and Everton also performed well (below).

Four of them are in the top five for predicted short-term and season-long goals conceded (xGC). But Newcastle have recently conceded the most goals (12, under), shots on target (31) and big chances (19).

Interestingly, all six are among the best in 2025/26 in at least one category. Arsenal, Man City and Man United are the leading trio in terms of stopping efforts on target. The first two teams, plus Villa and Everton, join Chelsea in the top five defenses in preventing goals, although David Moyes’ men tend to concede a lot of shots.

As for Newcastle, they are in the top four when it comes to blocking big chances (52, above), while Villa and Everton are not so good at it.

CONCLUSION

All things considered, it would be wise to stay away from the Blues’ defence. They have just failed to keep a clean sheet against West Ham United, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leeds or Burnley, and will face three of the league’s best attacks.

Only Everton’s performance is poor, but they have a good record when they meet on Merseyside.

Aston Villa have a low goal conversion rate (5.2%) but still score frequently.

However, the owners may be able to retain one of Chelsea’s forwards. After all, they have the best overall xG this season (52.30), and there is certainly nothing to fear against Newcastle, Man City or Everton’s backlines.

Even Arsenal’s current defense doesn’t feel invincible, and it’s impossible for Man United to suddenly be feared.

On the other hand, we recently delved into Palmer’s struggles against ‘big’ teams. His open game numbers aren’t that great, suggesting that the lower priced Pedro is a more defensible asset.