Additional promotional spots will not reduce financial pressure; it will improve it – Football in Berkshire

In 1902, the city of Hanoi in Vietnam was hit by a rat problem. Too many rats increases the threat of disease so local authorities are looking for a solution. They would pay local residents for every rat they killed. To avoid having to clean the body, only one is required for payment. Seeing an opportunity to make a quick buck, people would cut off the tail but neglected to kill the rat. Soon, a businessman had the wise idea to set up a rat farm to supply more rats. Therefore, reasonable incentives from local governments make the rat problem even more unsustainable.

In 2026 the National League will have a BELT (Bitter Ex League Team) problem. Too many former Football League clubs are clogging up the top level of non-league football, effectively turning it into a professional league, increasing wage budgets across the National League as BELT tries to force its way through the exit logjam back to a Football League that currently only has room for two teams a season. The National League Board’s solution was a campaign to increase the number of promotional spots to three, using phrases such as “putting football first” and “prehistoric injustice.” Makes sense, or will this make the club even more unsustainable?

Many would say the former, but there are skeptics, myself included, who suggest the latter. My argument is based on the historical fortunes of those who have won promotion to the EFL and by questioning the precedent it would set in other non-league pyramids.

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Before 1986 there was no automatic promotion to the Football League. Instead there is a re-selection system where the four clubs who finish bottom of Division Four, can be challenged by any non-league team for their place. A simple vote of the 92 clubs will then decide whether any changes will occur. These meetings were famous for the “old friends act” where clubs would pick each other off so they wouldn’t end up in the bottom four in the future. There was even one famous incident where a non-league applicant lost when one of his supporters allegedly fell asleep and missed the vote. So, from 1958 when Division Four was formed, to 1986 when automatic promotion was introduced, only six new clubs joined the Football League.

Three of those clubs, Oxford United, Wigan Athletic and Wimbledon, have spent time in the top division and won finals at Wembley. The other three teams (Cambridge United, Hereford United and Peterborough United) all qualified for the second division, and only the Bulls can be considered failures, having folded, with the phoenix club now playing in the National League North.

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Now let’s take a look at the clubs that have joined the Football League via automatic promotion. Only one team from 1986 and two from 2002. In my opinion only three clubs have really made the transition successfully: Burton Albion, Stevenage and Wycombe Wanderers. In my opinion, the jury is still out on Cheltenham Town, Crawley Town, Fleetwood Town and Salford both in terms of progress made in the Football League and longevity. Of the rest, Barnet have just rejoined for the fourth time, Bromley are still on the crest of their promotion wave, while Harrogate sit rock bottom. Currently in the National League are Boston United, Forest Green Rovers, Morecambe, Sutton United and Yeovil Town. One division below you will find Dagenham & Redbridge, Kidderminster Harriers, Macclesfield Town and Scarborough Athletic. Rushden & Diamonds are two divisions lower.

“Additional promotional spots will not reduce the financial pressure, but rather increase it. In the world of English football, the higher the level, the greater the losses, and the greater the dependence on philanthropists who are able to subsidize it, year after year”

Winning a non-league pyramid game may bring about the euphoric feeling of having reached the promised land, but is the hangover worth it? In the 2023/24 season, the last season for which full figures are available, the 65 Football League clubs suffered losses of half a billion pounds. This is not the case as Championship clubs catch up to Premier League football, a division in which three clubs are of course promoted. If you drill down to League Two, Deloitte calculates the average loss per club at £2.3m, or £44,230 per week. The less said about Rushden & Diamonds the better, while Boston, Macclesfield, Morecambe, Scarborough and Yeovil were spared the financial trauma. Therefore, I would argue that the sustained effort required to win an election is a better indicator of preparation for the Football League, than a single season’s success on the pitch.

Simply put, additional promotional spots will not reduce financial pressure; it will improve it. In English football, the higher the level, the higher the losses, and the greater the dependence on a benefactor who can subsidize it, year after year. Increasing the incentive to get promoted by expanding the barriers to promotion will only encourage the attitude of “This time next year Rodney, we will be millionaires in the Football League.” Of course there is one more club that will qualify, but another club will fall back down, most likely having just been promoted not long ago. The evidence of 40 years of automatic promotion is clear to see.

Promotion should be carried out on and off the pitch with sound finances and a strong playing squad, ideally driven by income from a strong supporter base. Therefore, firstly, the National League clubs need to grow and show that they are collectively a division designed for promotion to the Football League by choosing to accept a Wage Cost Management Protocol scheme similar to League Two where a club’s player-related expenditure must not exceed 50% of turnover. Secondly, although ideally I would prefer only the division champions to be eligible for promotion, I accept two as maintaining the status quo and indeed fitting in with the rest of the non-league pyramid (I digress but the logical extension of three up from the National League is six down so as not to keep promotion from National League North and National League South at an “unfair” two).

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With only two promotion places needed another attempt to increase the competitiveness of the National League, I would reduce the size of the three divisions to 20 clubs; ideally the Football League would follow suit and mass promote the National League’s eight clubs with a system based on credit for financial performance and play to counter too much loss aversion. Fewer, more meaningful league games, especially as this would reduce the need for less present midweek counterparts, would increase revenues and perhaps even revive interest in the abysmal cup competitions.

However I do admit my suggestion is ridiculous in the current climate as the new king sport is simply trying to chase the prestige of high level football with fiscal recklessness. Thus, the “common sense” for more promotion will prevail and non-league football will become even more unsustainable.

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